Jackie Belfast usually stays out of the prognostication game and doesn’t think vice presidential candidates are worth the warm bucket of spit they’ll be drinking for four years if they are nominated and win election. And right now, the talk is all about prospective VP candidates. Even so, with all the hubbub over the possibilities for a #2 on Thurston Howell Romney III’s ticket, Jackie feels he must weigh in. Especially because it is now fairly obvious whom that vice presidential candidate will be.
Yes, Rob Portman. To understand why, you probably have to be from Houston, in which case you would understand a complicated history involving dozens if not hundreds of connections that would seem insignificant, otherwise. But bear with me, because I’m informed by Jackie, who understands the connections like no one else in the world.
You have probably never heard the name Chase Untermeyer. It that’s the case, it’s your loss; he’s a distinguished public servant who went to high school in Houston, graduated from Harvard, was a state representative from Houston and served in a series of increasing important positions in the Reagan and Bush I presidencies (the most apropos to the current situation being Director of Presidential Personnel for Bush I). Thereafter, he was ambassador to Quatar under Bush II. Jackie says he’s a good, smart, decent guy, and I believe him.
Untermeyer just wrote a very public spirited op-ed for the Houston Chronicle that argues “the job posting for a modern vice president should read, `Hill experience required.'” The column makes a compelling case that the vice president’s primary job is “lobbyist in chief” of Congress and is dismissive of potential vice presidential candidates who do not have experience on the Hill. Untermeyer also writes that a Romney VP needs “a running mate with whom he will feel proud and comfortable to serve in the White House — and, yes, one who will help him get there in the first place.” Look at Untermeyer’s op-ed and the various names raised as potential Romney III VP’s, and you’ll see that only one fits Untermeyer’s bill: Rob Portman, senator and former congressman from Ohio, the Midwestern swing state that Romney absolutely must have to have any reasonable path to the presidency.
Now, Jackie and I can just hear you muttering under your breath, “So a mid-level functionary gave an unspecific suggestion in a third-rate newspaper that Portman might be a good pick. So what?” But that muttering just proves how little you know of Houston, and George H.W. Bush. Untermeyer is an embodiment of the Houston-DC connection. He is the master of local, state and national Republican political appointment-making. And the Houston Chronicle is the perfect media placement for his views. It’s important in Houston and some conservative circles, but not of enough national note to seem overbearing to the Romney campaign. If there’s anyone who knows Houston and its media hand signals, it is Jackie Belfast., and unless Jackie’s public tea leaf-reading capabilities have failed him, this op-ed is one of two things: The announcement that Portman is the pick, or a warning to Romney III that other picks are unacceptable to Bush I.
And who cares what Bush I thinks? Well, a certain upper-crust presidential candidate may care a lot. Back in March, when the Republican nomination was by no means sewed up, Bush I endorsed Romney III in this way:
“I do think it’s time for the party to get behind Gov. Romney. And she was reminding me Kenny Rogers sang, ‘It’s time when to hold ‘em and time when to fold ‘em,’” Bush said, loosely quoting a lyric from the famous song, “The Gambler.” “Well I think it’s time for people to all get behind this good man. And, some of ‘em waged a very good fight — I say that about some of his opponents. But we’re so convinced and we’ve known Mitt for a very long time, that he’s the man to do this job and get on and win the presidency.”
Bush had already expressed support for Romney last December, telling the Houston Chronicle at the time that the former Massachusetts governor was “the best choice.”
“Barbara and I are very proud to fully and enthusiastically endorse and support our old friend Mitt Romney,” the former president said, flanked by Romney and former First Lady Barbara Bush. “He’s a good man, he’ll make a great president.”
A lot of things happen in a political campaign, and as Jackie always says, nothing is a sure thing til the fat lady takes off her girdle. But Portman is at least 90 percent a VP choice, or Jackie Belfast isn’t a political golden boy.